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Swing Trading Analysis - Top Gainers of October 13, 2025
2025/10/13

Swing Trading Analysis - Top Gainers of October 13, 2025

Swing Trading Analysis - Top Gainers of October 13, 2025

To: Swing Trading Desk
From: Quantitative & Event-Driven Strategy Group
Date: October 14, 2025
Subject: Analysis of Top Gainers for Actionable Swing Trade Opportunities
The following report provides a comprehensive analysis of the 16 top-performing equities from the October 13, 2025 trading session. Each security has been evaluated through our proprietary framework, which integrates catalyst analysis, fundamental screening via the CANSLIM methodology, technical setup, valuation, and risk assessment. The objective is to identify high-conviction swing trading candidates and flag potential bull traps. The analysis is consolidated into the following matrix for efficient review.

TickerCatalystQuality (1-5)SustainabilityCANSLIM Score (/7)ValuationTechnical SetupActionEntry Strategy
ABATRegulatory Approval (Milestone): Completed all 21 required NEPA baseline studies for its Tonopah Flats Lithium Project, a major de-risking event for one of the largest lithium deposits in the U.S..151+ months. This is a foundational milestone, not a one-off event. The next key catalyst is the Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS). Red flags include an extremely overbought RSI (89) and 'Ultra Expensive' valuation, suggesting a near-term pullback is likely.35/7. Passes N, L, I, M. Strong institutional buying and leadership potential are key positives. Fails on negative annual EPS trend (A) and high share count (S).5Stretched. Unprofitable (no P/E). EV/Sales is exceptionally high at over 185x.4 Valuation is based entirely on future project execution.Parabolic Spike. Price is >170% above its 50-day MA. Volume was 5.3x average, confirming conviction. RSI at 89 indicates severely overbought conditions. Resistance at yesterday's high of $10.18.2WATCH CLOSELYPullback: Wait for a multi-day consolidation. Enter on a successful test and reversal from the $7.75 - $8.25 support zone. Stop: $7.10. Target: $10.10.
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ARQQAnalyst Upgrade & Sector Momentum: H.C. Wainwright raised its price target to $60. The move was amplified by strong momentum across the speculative quantum computing sector.831-2 days. Highly speculative and dependent on continued sector-wide sentiment. Red flags: extreme valuation (P/B >40x), minimal revenue ($530k guidance vs. $891M market cap), and high short interest (9.5% of float).103/7. Passes S (low float) and M. Fails on profitability (C, A), catalyst quality (N), and institutional sponsorship (I), which is very low at ~8%.13Extreme Speculation. Unprofitable. Price/Sales ratio is over 1,600x.15 Valuation is completely detached from current fundamentals.Continuation Spike. Part of a massive month-long rally (+92%). Price is extended far above key moving averages. Resistance at the 52-week high of $62.00.16PASSN/A
IDRSector Momentum: No company-specific news. The rally was driven by strength in the gold mining sector as gold bullion surpassed $4,000. Recent inclusion in the GDXJ ETF has also increased visibility.1721-2 days. Entirely dependent on the price of gold. Red flags: high valuation (P/E 75.44) and potential for share dilution from a recently announced at-the-market (ATM) stock offering.184.5/7. Passes S, L, I, M. Fails on C (quarterly EPS growth of 17.6% is below the 25% threshold) and N (no new catalyst).20Stretched. P/E of 75.44 is high relative to the gold mining sector average.Strong Breakout. Breaking out to new 52-week highs from a consolidating base. Price is well above rising 50-day and 200-day MAs. Volume is strong, confirming the move.MONITORN/A
LACSector Policy/Legislation: Broad rally in critical minerals stocks after JPMorgan announced a $1.5T investment initiative for industries "critical to national economic security." Follow-through from recent reports of potential U.S. government equity stake.2141-2 weeks. The theme of onshoring critical mineral supply chains, backed by major institutional and government capital, is a powerful tailwind. Red flags: the company is pre-revenue and unprofitable; the stock is technically extended after a >100% run in recent weeks.3.5/7. Passes N, L, M. Fails on profitability (C, A) and low institutional ownership (I) at ~23%, though this is likely to rise. Share count is high (S).23Speculative. Pre-revenue, so P/E and P/S are not applicable. Price/Book is ~3.0x.25 Valuation is a bet on the successful execution of the Thacker Pass project.Extended Uptrend. Price is well above the 50-day and 200-day MAs after a powerful multi-week advance. Yesterday's move was a continuation gap-up. Resistance near the recent high of $9.48.26WATCH CLOSELYPullback: An entry near the $7.50 level on a successful retest would offer a better risk/reward. Stop: $6.90. Target: $9.40.
LARSector Momentum: No company-specific news. Rallied in sympathy with other lithium stocks (ABAT, LAC, SGML) on the theme of securing domestic/allied mineral supply chains.21-2 days. Momentum is purely derivative of the broader lithium sector theme and lacks an independent catalyst. Red flags: unprofitable, negative cash flow, and operating in Argentina introduces significant geopolitical risk.2.5/7. Passes S (low float) and M. Fails on profitability (C, A), catalyst quality (N), and institutional sponsorship (I) at ~22%.27Speculative. Unprofitable. Price/Book is ~0.9x, which is cheaper than peers but reflects project stage and jurisdictional risk.29Breakout. Strong move breaking above recent consolidation. Price is now above all key moving averages. Volume was high, confirming the move. Resistance near $6.00.PASSN/A
LOMAUnknown/Speculation: No clear catalyst. The move could be related to general positive sentiment toward Argentine equities, but this is unconfirmed.11-2 days. Lacks a clear, sustainable driver. Red flags: company has a recent history of missing earnings expectations and has been flagged for overvaluation. Revenue and EBITDA have been declining.314/7. Passes A, S, L, M. Fails on C (recent earnings miss), N (no catalyst), and I (institutional ownership is moderate).Fair. P/E of 14.80 is reasonable for the building materials sector. However, declining fundamentals are a concern.31Range-Bound. The stock has been in a wide range for months. Yesterday's move was a bounce from the lower end of the range, not a clear breakout. Resistance is strong near $9.00-$9.50.PASSN/A
LPTHContract/Partnership Win: Appointment of a defense industry veteran, Mark Caylor (former President at Northrop Grumman), to its Board of Directors.3331-2 weeks. The appointment signals a strategic push into the defense sector, validating its recent large contract wins. Red flags: analysts do not expect profitability this year, and the company has moderate debt levels.333.5/7. Passes N, S, L, M. Fails on profitability (C, A). Institutional ownership data is sparse but appears low.35Stretched. Unprofitable. Valuation is based on future growth expectations from large new contracts slated for 2026-2027 delivery.36Strong Uptrend. Price is near its 52-week high of $10.16. The stock is well above its 50-day and 200-day MAs. Volume was slightly above average.MONITORN/A
MVSTSector Momentum: No specific news on October 13. The stock was included in a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) list and appears to be continuing momentum from recent news in early October about its inclusion in the S&P Global BMI Index and a new battery launch.3721-2 days. The catalyst is stale; yesterday's move was likely technical and momentum-driven. Red flags: mixed recent earnings with a revenue miss due to delayed orders, and struggles to gain traction in the U.S. market.394/7. Passes C, A, N, M. Fails on S (high float), L (not a clear leader vs. larger battery players), and I (institutional ownership is moderate but not dominant). Q2 EPS was a beat.40Fair to Stretched. Forward P/E is ~23.42 Valuation is contingent on meeting aggressive growth targets and successfully expanding capacity.Breakout Attempt. The stock is attempting to break out of a multi-month base. It cleared the 50-day and 200-day MAs. Volume was strong. Resistance at the 52-week high of $5.40.MONITORN/A
NBGuidance Raise (Update): On October 12, the company provided preliminary Q1 2026 results, guiding for an adjusted net loss per share of -$0.07, which was better than the consensus estimate of -$0.09.4331-2 weeks. An earnings beat for a pre-revenue company is a moderate positive. The key remains project financing and execution. Red flags: significant dilution from recent equity offerings and large non-cash losses related to warrants.432.5/7. Passes N, S, M. Fails on profitability (C, A), leadership (L), and institutional ownership is low at ~18%.45Speculative. Pre-revenue. Valuation is based on the future potential of its Elk Creek critical minerals project.Spike. A sharp gap up from a low base. Price surged above its 50-day and 200-day MAs on massive volume. Resistance near yesterday's high of $11.43.MONITORN/A
PENGSector Momentum: No company-specific news. The rally was part of a broad move in semiconductor stocks after President Trump softened his tone on China trade relations.4721-2 days. Purely a high-beta trade on market sentiment, not company fundamentals. Red flags: The listed P/E of 74,400 is nonsensical. Management guided for significant headwinds in fiscal 2026 due to exiting a business line.484/7. Passes C, A, L, M. Non-GAAP diluted EPS for FY2025 grew 53%.48 Fails on N (no new catalyst) and S (high float). Institutional ownership is very high at >100% (including convertibles), which can be a negative.49Stretched. The extreme P/E ratio suggests a data anomaly or one-time event. Even on a forward basis, the valuation is not compelling given guided headwinds.Range Bounce. The stock bounced hard off its 50-day MA but remains well below its 52-week high. This is not a clean breakout setup.PASSN/A
POETContract/Partnership Win (Financing): Follow-through momentum from the October 7 announcement of a $75 million private placement from a single institutional investor, bolstering its cash position to over $150M.5041-2 weeks. A large, non-brokered investment from a single institution is a significant vote of confidence. The cash infusion provides a long runway for R&D and strategic acquisitions. Red flags: the company is unprofitable and analysts project continued losses.3.5/7. Passes N, S, L, M. Fails on profitability (C, A). Institutional ownership is very low at ~9.5%, though the new investment will boost this.51Speculative. Pre-profitability. Valuation is based on the future commercialization of its optical interposer technology for the AI and data center markets.Strong Breakout. Price broke out of a multi-week consolidation pattern on enormous volume. It is now trading near 52-week highs and well above all key moving averages.MONITORN/A
SGMLSector Momentum: No company-specific news. Rallied in sympathy with the broader lithium and critical materials theme (ABAT, LAC). The stock is included in relevant ETFs like SETM and REMX, making it a target for thematic buying.5221-2 days. Momentum is entirely dependent on the lithium sector. Red flags: earnings have been declining at an average of -23% per year, and the company is unprofitable. Q2 2025 was a revenue and earnings miss.541.5/7. Passes M and S (moderate float). Fails on all other criteria, especially C and A due to consistent losses and declining earnings.55Speculative. Unprofitable. Valuation is based on its production assets in Brazil, a jurisdiction with higher perceived risk than the U.S. or Canada.Base Breakout. Strong move on high volume breaking out from a multi-month basing pattern. Price is now above the 50-day and 200-day MAs.PASSN/A
SHLSSector Momentum: No company-specific news. The move is likely tied to a general rebound in beaten-down solar and alternative energy stocks, possibly on technicals or sector rotation.21-2 days. Lacks a specific catalyst and relies on broad sector sentiment. Red flags: the solar sector has faced significant headwinds, and the stock was recently flagged as "newly overvalued" by Morningstar in early October.575/7. Passes C, A, L, I, M. Fails on N (no catalyst) and S (high float). EPS for Q2 2025 beat estimates by 28%.58 Annual EPS is forecast to grow strongly.58 Institutional ownership is very high at 92.5%.59Fair. Trailing P/E is 73.24, but forward P/E is more reasonable given strong growth forecasts. P/E is 28.85 on a normalized basis.57Bottoming Pattern. The stock is attempting to form a base after a prolonged downtrend. It just reclaimed its 50-day MA but is still far below the 200-day MA. Yesterday's volume was above average but not exceptional.MONITORN/A
TMQSector Policy/Legislation: President Trump signed an executive order approving the Ambler Road Project in Alaska and the U.S. government took a 10% stake in the company for $35.6M.6051+ months. This is a transformative, dual catalyst. The executive order removes the primary obstacle to developing its mining district assets, and the direct government investment provides both capital and a powerful validation of the project's strategic importance.3.5/7. Passes N, L, S, M. Fails on profitability (C, A). Institutional ownership is moderate at ~26%.62Speculative. Pre-revenue. Valuation is now directly backstopped by the U.S. government's investment and the de-risking of its core assets.Massive Gap-Up. The stock gapped up over 100% in after-hours trading on the news. It will open far above all key moving averages in a parabolic spike.WATCH CLOSELYPullback/Consolidation: Chasing a 100%+ gap is extremely risky. Wait for a multi-day or multi-week flag/pennant pattern to form. Entry on a breakout from that consolidation.
TNGXProduct Launch (Data Release): Announcement that the company will present the first clinical data from its TNG260 program at the upcoming SITC medical conference.6341-2 weeks. Event-driven momentum into the conference date is common in biotech. The move's sustainability depends entirely on the quality of the data presented. Red flags: high short interest (82% of float) creates extreme volatility risk.642.5/7. Passes N, S, M. Fails on profitability (C, A) and leadership (L). Institutional ownership is high but this is common for development-stage biotech.65Speculative. Clinical-stage biotech with no revenue. Valuation is based on the potential of its drug pipeline.Breakout. The stock broke out of a multi-month consolidation range on very high volume. Price is now above its 50-day and 200-day MAs.WATCH CLOSELYBreakout: The initial move has been made. A viable entry would be on a breakout above yesterday's high of $8.59 after a brief consolidation. Stop: $7.90. Target: $10.00.
TTIEarnings Beat (Pre-announcement): The company announced the date for its Q3 2025 earnings release and conference call.67 While not an earnings release itself, this can often generate pre-earnings momentum.21-2 days. This is a very weak, procedural catalyst. The move is likely technical. Red flags: the stock is approaching overhead resistance from its prior highs.6/7. Passes C, A, S, L, I, M. Fails only on N (no new catalyst). The company has a strong history of recent earnings beats and positive annual EPS growth.68 Institutional ownership is extremely high at 94.6%.70Cheap. Trailing P/E is very low at 7.16. The stock appears fundamentally undervalued relative to its earnings.Uptrend. The stock is in a healthy uptrend, trading above its 50-day and 200-day MAs. Volume was slightly elevated. Resistance is near the $6.50 level.MONITORN/A

SUMMARY

Top 3 Highest-Conviction Picks

  1. ABAT (American Battery Technology Company) - WATCH CLOSELY: ABAT possesses the highest-quality catalyst of the group. The completion of NEPA baseline studies is a massive de-risking event that materially advances its flagship Tonopah Flats project, one of America's largest lithium resources, toward production. This is not speculative news; it is a foundational step in a sector with immense strategic importance and government backing. While the stock is technically overbought after a 36% gain, its powerful catalyst, strong institutional accumulation, and clear line-of-sight to the next milestone (the Pre-Feasibility Study) make it a prime candidate for a swing trade on any significant pullback or consolidation.
  2. TMQ (Trilogy Metals Inc.) - WATCH CLOSELY: The company benefited from a rare and powerful dual catalyst: an executive order greenlighting the critical Ambler Road Project in Alaska and a direct equity investment from the U.S. government. This simultaneously removes the project's primary logistical hurdle and provides a powerful government validation of its strategic importance for critical minerals like copper and cobalt. The catalyst is unequivocally a "5" in quality and fundamentally transforms the company's outlook. The stock's expected 100%+ gap-up makes an immediate entry exceptionally risky, but it should be monitored closely for a multi-week consolidation pattern to form, which would present a high-conviction entry point.
  3. TNGX (Tango Therapeutics) - WATCH CLOSELY: This represents a classic, event-driven biotech trade. The announcement of a first-ever clinical data release for a key drug program at a major medical conference provides a clear, date-specific catalyst. These events often generate significant momentum leading up to the presentation. The situation is amplified by an extremely high short interest, creating the potential for an explosive short squeeze if sentiment turns positive. The stock has already broken out on high volume, confirming initial conviction. This is a high-risk, high-reward setup with a clear timeline.

Stocks to Avoid Despite Gains

  1. ARQQ (Arqit Quantum Inc.): This rally is built on a weak foundation. The catalyst—a single analyst price target increase—is insufficient to justify a 20% move on an $891 million market cap company with negligible revenue. The stock is a high-beta participant in a speculative frenzy around quantum computing, making it a sentiment trade rather than a fundamental one. With an astronomical valuation and very low institutional sponsorship, the risk of a rapid and severe reversal is exceptionally high.
  2. PENG (Penguin Solutions Inc.): The 5.5% gain was not driven by any company-specific news but rather by a broad, market-wide rally on easing China trade tensions. This is a weak, non-durable catalyst. More importantly, the company's own guidance for fiscal 2026 includes significant headwinds from exiting a business line. The listed P/E ratio of over 74,000 is a major red flag, indicating either a data error or a valuation completely detached from reality. This stock is simply riding the market tide and has poor underlying fundamentals for a swing trade.
  3. LOMA (Loma Negra): The 7.7% gain occurred in a catalyst vacuum. While potentially tied to positive sentiment on Argentine equities, the lack of a specific driver makes the move suspect. The company has a history of missing earnings expectations and has been flagged for overvaluation. With declining revenue and EBITDA, the fundamental picture is deteriorating. This appears to be a technically-driven bounce in a fundamentally weak stock, making it a potential bull trap.

Overall Market Context for Swing Trading

The current market environment is favorable for engaging in high-momentum swing trading. Both the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages, confirming a bullish market uptrend.71 Furthermore, the VIX index is low and has been trending downward, signaling a "risk-on" appetite among market participants where speculative and high-beta assets are more likely to perform well.10

Two dominant themes are evident from yesterday's top gainers list:

  1. U.S. Critical Minerals & Energy Independence: This is the most powerful and fundamentally-backed theme, driven by clear government policy and major institutional capital flows. Stocks like ABAT, LAC, and TMQ are direct beneficiaries. These catalysts are durable and represent a multi-week, if not multi-month, tailwind.
  2. Speculative Technology: A strong risk appetite is fueling rallies in high-concept sectors like quantum computing (ARQQ) and photonics (POET). These moves are more speculative, less tied to current fundamentals, and are therefore more volatile and susceptible to rapid reversals.

Conclusion: The environment is conducive to swing trading, but selectivity is paramount. The highest-probability setups are found in companies with high-quality, company-specific fundamental catalysts (ABAT, TMQ, TNGX) rather than those simply benefiting from broad sector momentum (ARQQ, SGML).

Works cited

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  2. American Battery Technology surge 37% after NEPA baseline studies completion, accessed October 14, 2025, https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:4faf6c740094b:0-american-battery-technology-surge-37-after-nepa-baseline-studies-completion/
  3. Why American Battery Technology Company's (ABAT) Stock Is Up 17.27% | AAII, accessed October 14, 2025, https://www.aaii.com/investingideas/article/325398-why-american-battery-technology-company8217s-abat-stock-is-up-1727
  4. American Battery Technology Company (ABAT) Statistics & Valuation - Stock Analysis, accessed October 14, 2025, https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/abat/statistics/
  5. American Battery Technology (NASDAQ:ABAT) Sets New 1-Year High - What's Next?, accessed October 14, 2025, https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/american-battery-technology-nasdaqabat-sets-new-1-year-high-whats-next-2025-10-13/
  6. ABAT - American Battery Technology Company Stock - Stock Price, Institutional Ownership, Shareholders (NasdaqCM) - Fintel, accessed October 14, 2025, https://fintel.io/so/us/abat
  7. ABAT - American Battery Technology Company Stock Price and Quote - Finviz, accessed October 14, 2025, https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ABAT
  8. New Analyst Forecast: $ARQQ Given $60.0 Price Target, accessed October 14, 2025, https://www.quiverquant.com/news/New+Analyst+Forecast%3A+%24ARQQ+Given+%2460.0+Price+Target
  9. Arqit Quantum Inc Stock Price Today | NASDAQ: ARQQ Live - Investing.com, accessed October 14, 2025, https://www.investing.com/equities/centricus-acquisition
  10. Arqit Quantum Inc (ARQQ) Stock Price & News - Google Finance, accessed October 14, 2025, https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ARQQ:NASDAQ
  11. Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ), accessed October 14, 2025, https://ir.arqit.uk/
  12. ARQQ - Arqit Quantum Inc. Stock - Share Price, Short Interest, Short Squeeze, Borrow Rates (NasdaqCM) - Fintel, accessed October 14, 2025,
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